President Goodluck Jonathan, the presidential candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, and his major rival, Muhammadu Buhari of the All Progressives Congress, APC, have remarkably rewritten former assumptions putting the contest into what has become the most competitive election since the return of democratic rule in 1999.

It is a battle being fought on every inch of Nigerian territory. Buhari, who in his former contests practically ignored several areas, is going out meeting and soliciting for votes from all over the country. Besides the strategic meeting with governors, he is also expected to address the concerns of traders in Onitsha. President Jonathan, on the other hand, has practically laid siege on the Southwest with the prospect of winning over the people of the region. A state by state detail of the battle on the ground is presented hereunder.

Anambra State

2011: Jonathan 1,145,169 Buhari 4,223

Anambra was a state Jonathan won with more than 99 per cent in 2011 with 1,145,169 votes. The president is believably headed for another victory in the state in 2015, but only fools will believe that the president could get the kind of victory he got four years ago.

The momentum for Buhari has been tempered in Anambra by internal divisions within the Buhari campaign especially around the personality of the leaders of the campaign. Senator Chris Ngige, who is leading the campaign in the state, is not in the good books of a handful of many other supporters.

Dr. Jonathan is also boosted by the unqualified support he is receiving from the All Progressives Grand Alliance, APGA government in the state. Dr. Jonathan would win handsomely in the state, Buhari would not get 25 per cent but the bad news for the Jonathan campaign is that the swelled vote would not be obtained given the introduction of the card reader.

Ebonyi

2011: Jonathan 480,592 Buhari 1,025

Jonathan got more than 99.5 per cent of the votes he got in 2011 and was helped by the fact that Buhari practically did not have an organisation in the state and the state opposition leader, Senator Julius Ucha was drained of resources.

However, with the reinvention of the opposition and the internal discord in the PDP that led to the movement of Governor Martin Elechi’s supporters to Labour Party, the APC could be tempted to smell an opportunity. However, chances of that were as at weekend not viable given recent efforts by the president to keep Elechi from being impeached.

Unless Elechi decides to play a rascal, Buhari will not get 25 per cent in Ebonyi

IMO

Nigerian President Goodluck Jonathan AFP PHOTO

Dr. Jonathan got almost the entire 1,406, 289 votes in Imo State in 2011. However, the defeat of Ikedi Ohakim in the governorship election that took place about the same time by 290,496 votes to 336,859 votes in the same constituency has led many to believe that the presidential election results may have been bloated. Given that less than 600,000 persons voted in the governorship election has resulted in questions about where the voters in the presidential election came from.

With the opposition in control of the state, Imo looks the brightest opportunity for Buhari in the Southeast, but he would yet be lucky to smile home with 40 per cent of the votes.

Enugu

Jonathan won here with 882,144 votes to Buhari’s 3753 while Ribadu went home with 1,755 votes.

The major players in the state are Senator Ike Ekweremadu, the deputy president of the Senate and Governor Sullivan Chime who are both on the surface rooting for the president. But given the wounds that the governor received and the fact that he has no stake in the presidential election he could decide to pay back the president with bad coins so that both of them could retire from public life together.

Also to the advantage of Buhari is the presence of Father Ejike Mbaka, who has openly endorsed Buhari against the president.

The prospects of Buhari getting 25 per cent in Enugu are not impossible despite the efforts of Ekweremadu.

ABIA

Jonathan got 1,175,954 to the 3,608 votes Buhari received in 2011. Though with the introduction of the card reader the prospects of Jonathan getting that many votes have been seriously reduced, but there is little doubt he would easily trounce Buhari in Abia. The closest opposition is APGA which has interestingly adopted Jonathan as its presidential candidate.

The factors against Buhari could only be sentiments against the outgoing administration and the slowdown of the economy which has affected businesses in the state. Still, Buhari is not expected to get 25 per cent in Abia.

Remarkably, unlike the situation in many other states where losers in the PDP governorship primaries defected or went underground, many of those who lost out in the PDP including Emeka Wogu are fanatically working for the PDP.

DELTA

Jonathan won here with 1, 378, 851 in 2011. However, since then a number of political shifts and miscalculations have been made to cause a radical alteration of the permutations.

While the PDP remains almost unified the humiliation the governor, Dr. Emmanuel Uduaghan suffered even after surrendering his senatorial ticket and inability to position his own man as governor has led some to believe he could seek vengeance. However, the governor has almost remained steadfastl in support of the Jonathan project.

Anyway, other issues including the reported overbearing attitude of Jonathan’s Ijaw kinsmen which has led to the repeated postponement of the groundbreaking of the EPZ in the state, and the sidelining of the Urhobo may hurt Jonathan .

Buhari is, however, not helped by the fact that his governorship candidate in the state, Otega Emerhor was not universally accepted by the party leaders. That nonetheless, Jonathan is no longer looked at as “our brother” by the non-Ijaws, a situation that has put Buhari in good look to get at least 30 per cent of the votes in Delta.

EDO

2011: Jonathan 542, 173 Buhari 17,795

The results in 2011 would be of little consequence in 2015 given that Governor Adams Oshiomhole practically sat on the fence that year. In 2015 the comrade governor has taken the Buhari project as a personal one. The challenges that have faced the Jonathan administration make it a tempting ground for Buhari to pull away victory. However, the PDP is marshalling several personalities including Chief Tony Anenih, Chief Tom Ikimi among others to help the president. Edo is too close to call.

BAYELSA

504,811 691.

Buhari got only 691 votes last time. He is destined to do better given the internal discord in the state chapter of the PDP but it would be a foolish guess to say he could score more than 5 per cent of the votes in the state.

CROSS RIVER

2011 Jonathan 709,382 Buhari 4,002

Not much of change is expected for Buhari in Cross River given the absence of a strong internal party in the state. Jonathan should score a minimum of 80 per cent of the votes in Cross River. However, like in many other states the total number of votes is expected to be suppressed by the anti-rigging device, card reader.

AKWA IBOM

2011: Jonathan 1,165,629 Buhari 5,348

Jonathan is expected to be seriously challenged in Akwa Ibom by the support Buhari is getting from the machine transferred to him by the APC governorship candidate, Umana Umana. The popularity Umana is getting and the largely unexpressed attitude of the Ibibio population towards Governor Godswill Akpabio would pose serious dangers for the president.

If the election goes smoothly, the president will win but Buhari would get more than 25 per cent of the votes.

RIVERS

2011 Jonathan 1, 817, 762 Buhari 13,182

This is where the president’s political problems started and it would come to a head in six days time as the president again seeks the support of his in-laws.

The PDP has traditionally harvested an approximate two million votes in presidential and governorship elections in Rivers State and that was when the PDP was in control of the Government House, Port Harcourt, where many of the winning strategies were formulated. But with the APC now in control of the Government House the PDP’s leverage has been greatly diminished.

The prospects of Governor Chibuke Amaechi delivering Rivers to Buhari are daunting as the president is expected to win again, but with a significantly suppressed number of votes. The votes will count if all goes well and the traditional two million votes will not be available to the PDP candidate. Buhari will smile home and be satisfied with at least 30 per cent of the votes.

LAGOS

Jonathan 1, 281, 688; Buhari 189, 983; Ribadu 427, 000

Buhari took third in 2011 largely on account of the support Ribadu got from the APC machine in Lagos. But with the same support now actively being shifted to Buhari and given the challenges of the president and the Osinbajo factor, the president is in danger of losing Lagos State to Buhari.

The president was politically shrewd to push forward a popular governorship candidate in the person of Jimi Agbaje, however, that is not going to be of much help to him given the erosion of the Islamic label on Buhari and the momentum he has received. Lagos is too close to call.

The president would be helped in Lagos by the sentiments of the vast Igbo population, majority of who are chorusing for him.

OGUN