Campaigns for Nigeria’s 2027 presidential election officially kick off today, with economic hardship, the rising cost of living, insecurity and President Bola Tinubu’s reforms expected to dominate the race.

The election, scheduled for five months from now, will see Tinubu seek a second term amid growing concerns over the country’s economic challenges and persistent security threats.

Nigeria, Africa’s most populous nation, has endured years of economic difficulties and violence linked to various armed groups. However, the division within the opposition is seen as a major advantage for Tinubu as he seeks re-election.

“The economy is the biggest issue. That’s the one thing that cuts across different parts of the country, and it continues to affect security and development concerns,” said Afolabi Adekaiyaoja, author of the *Bellwether* political newsletter.

Since assuming office in 2023, Tinubu has implemented far-reaching economic reforms, including the removal of the fuel subsidy, which had previously helped suppress the cost of goods and services.

Although the reforms have been welcomed by economists and investors, they have also contributed to a severe cost-of-living crisis, with the naira losing significant value and inflation rising to 34 per cent. Headline inflation, however, eased to 15.4 per cent in July.

Poverty remains another major challenge. The World Bank estimates that more than 60 per cent of Nigerians now live below the poverty line, compared with about 40 per cent in 2019.

Nigeria is also battling multiple security crises, including jihadist insurgency, armed banditry, farmer-herder conflicts and separatist violence.

Ladd Serwat, a senior Africa analyst at conflict monitor ACLED, said violence had increased since 2024, driven largely by the spread and intensification of armed banditry across northern and central Nigeria, as well as heightened conflict in Borno State, the centre of the country’s jihadist insurgency.

Meanwhile, the opposition has struggled to present a united and compelling alternative to Tinubu’s policies.

“The opposition has been too mired in internal and legal issues to really articulate a difference” between their policies and those of Tinubu, Adekaiyaoja said.

For many voters, however, the economy and cost of living are expected to remain key factors in determining their choices.

“The most important issues for me are the economy and cost of living,” said 42-year-old civil servant Afolayan Abdullahi, who said he intended to vote for Tinubu.