The European Union (EU) has declined to deploy a full-scale election observation mission to Nigeria for the 2027 general elections, citing the worsening security situation and what it described as the hostile treatment of its observers and officials following the 2023 polls.
The decision brings to an end more than two decades of extensive EU election observation missions in Nigeria and could significantly reduce the level of international scrutiny surrounding the 2027 elections.
The EU conveyed its decision in response to a letter from the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), which had invited the bloc to observe the 2027 elections.
According to the correspondence, the EU based its decision on two key concerns: the deteriorating security situation across Nigeria and the treatment of its observers and officials after the publication of its final report on the 2023 general elections.
Rather than the large-scale deployment used during previous election cycles, the EU is expected to send only a small team of officials to Abuja to monitor developments and report to Brussels.
Sources familiar with the correspondence said the team could comprise about three officials.
Under the arrangement, there would be no long-term observers deployed across the states, no short-term observers at polling units on election day and no chief observer, as was the case during previous EU missions.
INEC has consistently invited the EU to observe Nigeria’s general elections since the country returned to democratic rule in 1999.
The bloc monitored the 2003, 2007, 2011, 2015, 2019 and 2023 elections. Its 2023 mission was described by its chief observer, Irish Member of the European Parliament Barry Andrews, as the seventh EU election observation mission to Nigeria since 1999.
For the 2023 elections, an 11-member core team of experts arrived in Abuja on January 11, about six weeks before the presidential poll.
The EU subsequently deployed 40 long-term observers across Nigeria’s 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory, while short-term observers joined the mission shortly before election day.
The deployment eventually grew to 110 accredited observers drawn from 25 EU member states, as well as Norway, Switzerland and Canada.
A delegation of the European Parliament also participated in the observation of the presidential and National Assembly elections. The mission remained in Nigeria until April 11, several weeks after the February 25 presidential and March 18 governorship elections.
The EU released its final report in Abuja in June 2023, containing 25 recommendations across six priority areas.
The report identified what it described as persistent systemic weaknesses in Nigeria’s electoral process, arguing that shortcomings in electoral legislation and administration had undermined the conduct of well-run and inclusive elections and weakened public confidence in INEC.
The report generated controversy and triggered protests at the EU delegation’s office in Abuja, with organisers accusing the bloc of interfering in Nigeria’s internal affairs and demanding the withdrawal of its findings.
Opposition figures and civil society groups subsequently alleged that supporters of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) sponsored the protests, an allegation that was denied.
The EU’s decision comes amid continued insecurity across several parts of the country, particularly the North-West, North-East, Middle Belt and South-East.
Violence, attacks on electoral facilities and enforcement of sit-at-home orders disrupted the 2023 elections in several states, raising concerns about the safety and mobility of election observers.
International election observation missions typically require personnel to travel extensively to polling units, including rural and remote communities where security support can be limited. The prevailing security environment could therefore make large-scale deployment increasingly challenging.
The decision is also likely to have implications for international scrutiny of the 2027 elections, given the scale and duration of the EU’s previous missions.
The National Democratic Institute, International Republican Institute, Commonwealth and African Union have also observed previous Nigerian elections. However, stakeholders say none has matched the EU’s extensive and sustained presence.
The EU remains a major partner in Nigeria’s democratic development, having committed €39 million in 2022 under the second phase of its Support to Democratic Governance in Nigeria programme, covering the 2022–2027 electoral cycle.
The bloc also committed an additional €13 million specifically for technical support to INEC ahead of the 2023 elections.
The latest EU correspondence did not indicate whether the decision to scale back its election observation activities would affect those funding arrangements.
The development could further influence perceptions of the credibility of the 2027 elections, coming at a time of concerns over declining public confidence and voter participation.
Voter turnout in the 2023 presidential election was about 27 per cent, the lowest recorded since Nigeria returned to democratic rule in 1999.
Stakeholders have argued that the presence of credible international observers provides an additional layer of scrutiny at polling units and can help strengthen public confidence in the electoral process.
The 2027 general elections are scheduled for February, with INEC already intensifying preparations, including continuous voter registration and a review of polling unit distribution.
However, INEC’s Chief Press Secretary to the Chairman, Oketola Oriye, declined to comment when contacted by Daily Sun on the development.
In a telephone interview, Oriye said the information available to him was at variance with the claims.
Similarly, the spokesperson for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Kemiebi Ebiemfa, declined to comment.
Messages sent to her active telephone line were delivered but remained unanswered, while the line was unavailable as of the time of filing this report.
