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Will Sudan’s upheaval bring fears for South Sudan’s peace deal?
 
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Fri, 12 Apr 2019   ||   Sudan,
 

The military overthrow of Sudan's longtime president quickly has raised concerns about whether the upheaval will destabilize neighboring South Sudan's fragile efforts at peace after five years of civil war, local news media questions.

Amid the laughter and applause on the streets of South Sudan's capital, Juba, moments after the ouster on Thursday, there was worry about what will happen now that Omar al-Bashir , who helped broker a South Sudan peace deal last year, is gone.

“It is too early to celebrate,” Jacob Chol, senior political analyst and professor at the University of Juba, told The Associated Press. Al-Bashir's fall is likely to have a negative impact as he pushed South Sudan's warring parties to implement the peace agreement and he's no longer “on the throne,” he said.

Al-Bashir for decades had waged fighting with southern Sudan, which ultimately separated from the north in 2011 and became South Sudan, the world's youngest nation.

Since the split al-Bashir's relationship slowly evolved into one of peacemaker, though with an eye on the oil-rich region that is now part of South Sudan.

If Khartoum is no longer able to project its power onto Juba, it will be up to South Sudan's leaders to decide whether they want to move forward with the peace process and they may have to do it on their own, said Alan Boswell, senior analyst with the International Crisis Group.

The peace deal signed in September already has been fraught with delays and outbreaks of fighting.

In a month's time, opposition leader Riek Machar is expected to return to South Sudan to once again serve as President Salva Kiir's deputy, an arrangement that has ended more than once in deadly fighting. But key parts of the peace deal have yet to be implemented including the defining of internal boundaries and creating a unified national army.

In a report last month the International Crisis Group warned of a “high risk of collapse.”

South Sudan's government denied that al-Bashir's removal will affect it.

“The peace agreement is not based on a person. It was based on institutions,” government spokesman Ateny Wek Ateny said.

Whoever comes into power next in Sudan is an internal matter, he said.

 

 

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